Summary
A Data for Progress survey of 1,225 U.S. likely voters (Jan. 16–20, 2026) finds ICE favorability has flipped during Trump’s second term — from +13 right after inauguration to -9 by late January. A majority (55%) say increased ICE funding is a bad use of taxpayer money, and voters are divided on what “Abolish ICE” actually means, with only 42% equating it to full elimination.
Key Points
- ICE favorability: 42% favorable, 51% unfavorable — down from +13 at inauguration
- Independents unfavorable on ICE by a -20-point margin
- 55% say increased ICE funding is a bad use of taxpayer money; 62% of independents agree
- “Abolish ICE” interpretation: 42% say full elimination; 27% say eliminate but reallocate functions; 25% say replace with a new agency
- Democrats are roughly split across all three interpretations of “Abolish ICE”
Newsletter Angles
- The “Abolish ICE” messaging problem is analytically important: a majority are unfavorable toward ICE, but they can’t agree on what abolition means. The opposition is real; the alternative is not yet formed. This is a political messaging gap that the Killing of Renée Good crystallized without resolving.
- The -20 independent margin is the key number for political impact — this is not a partisan issue confined to Democrats.
- The funding disapproval stat (55%) is a fiscal framing that could be deployed without the loaded “abolish” language.
Entities Mentioned
- Killing of Renée Good — cited as the immediate trigger for renewed “Abolish ICE” debate
- Operation Metro Surge — implied context for the surge in ICE funding
Concepts Mentioned
- Sanctuary Infrastructure — voter opposition to ICE funding is one dimension of sanctuary politics
- Political Stress — declining ICE favorability reflects mounting political anxiety over immigration enforcement
Notes
Survey conducted Jan. 16–20, 2026, so it captures sentiment after the Good killing (Jan. 7) but before the second Minneapolis shooting (Jan. 24). Data for Progress is a progressive polling firm; results skew toward likely voters, which tends to favor Democrats. MOE ±3 points.