Summary
ABC News projected win call with exit poll analysis for Spanberger’s Virginia governor victory. Emphasizes historic firsts, exit poll data on economy and abortion, and the campaign’s navigation of the Jay Jones text scandal and trans issues.
Key Points
- Spanberger wins, becomes first female governor of Virginia; Ghazala Hashmi wins LG, first Muslim woman elected statewide in US history
- Exit poll: nearly half of Virginia voters cited economy as top issue; Spanberger won those voters by ~20 percentage points
- 6 in 10 Virginia voters said federal government cuts affected their finances; they went 2-to-1 for Spanberger
- Independents: Spanberger led by double-digit margin; in 2021 Youngkin won independents outright
- Abortion: 6 in 10 said abortion should be legal in all/most cases; 8 in 10 of those voted Spanberger
- Virginia has 300,000+ federal employees; DOGE and shutdown directly affected state’s economic environment
- Jay Jones text scandal (“called for violence against a Republican lawmaker”): Earle-Sears ran ads on it; Spanberger refused to call for Jones to drop out; Jones won AG anyway
- Trans issue: Earle-Sears ran trans-exclusionary ads; polls showed this didn’t resonate with Virginia voters who cited democracy, inflation, health care as top concerns
- Trump didn’t endorse Earle-Sears; didn’t mention her in tele-rally
Newsletter Angles
- The federal workforce variable: Virginia’s 300,000+ federal employees made DOGE cuts and the shutdown uniquely personal for a large voter bloc. This may be the cleanest natural experiment on how federal workforce cuts affect gubernatorial elections
- The abortion exit poll (8 in 10 voters who want legal abortion voted Spanberger) suggests abortion remains a strong Democratic mobilizer even when not the top issue
Entities Mentioned
- Abigail Spanberger — winner; first female governor
- Donald Trump — non-endorser; tacit drag on Earle-Sears
- 2025 Elections — Virginia race
Concepts Mentioned
- Coalition Fracture — independents who went for Youngkin in 2021 flipped hard to Spanberger
Notes
ABC News. November 5, 2025. Good exit poll data source. Companion to NBC News and Newsweek pieces on the same race.