Summary
CNBC pre-meeting preview for the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting. Covers the political intrigue (Miran swearing in, Waller/Bowman potential dissents, Cook ouster), the widely-expected 25 bps cut, and the forward guidance uncertainty. Key framing: “growing politicization of the Fed” making everything more complicated.
Key Points
- Stephen Miran sworn in as governor on September 15 (two days before meeting); expected to dissent for larger cut
- Treasury Secretary Bessent on CNBC: encouraged Fed to provide “fulsome” cut; said Trump has “been right at almost every turn”
- Trump on September 15: FOMC “MUST CUT INTEREST RATES, NOW, AND BIGGER THAN [Powell] HAD IN MIND”
- Markets: 70%+ probability of 25 bps cut; October and December cuts also priced in
- Potential dissent map: Miran (bigger cut), possibly Waller/Bowman (bigger cut), possibly Schmid/Musalem (no cut)
- Goldman Sachs (Mericle): dot plot likely to show two rather than three 2025 cuts “by a narrow margin”
- Evercore ISI’s Guha: dissents highlight splits but “still leave a much larger center group that agrees it is time to start the recalibration process”
- Cook firing: Trump pushing to remove Cook, indicating replacement after Powell’s May 2026 departure
Newsletter Angles
- “Growing politicization of the Fed” as framing — the question isn’t whether the Fed will be politicized but whether it can maintain policy credibility despite politicization
- Bessent on CNBC calling for a “fulsome” cut is a breach of the norm against Treasury officials pressuring the Fed publicly — typically handled behind closed doors
Entities Mentioned
- Jerome Powell — about to make first cut
- Federal Reserve — at political crossroads
- Donald Trump — actively pressuring
Concepts Mentioned
- Fed Independence — “growing politicization” framing
- Tariff-Driven Inflation — background constraint on cuts
Notes
CNBC sourcing. Preview piece; companion to Fed meeting recap September 2025 which covers the actual outcome.