Summary
Data for Progress survey (n=1,225, January 16–20, 2026) on voter attitudes toward ICE conducted in the weeks following the fatal shooting of Renée Good by an ICE officer in Minneapolis. Finds ICE favorability has flipped from +13 at Trump’s inauguration to -9 (42% favorable, 51% unfavorable). Independents have a -20 unfavorable view of ICE. Majority calls increased ICE funding a “bad use of taxpayer money.”
Key Points
- ICE favorability has flipped: From +13 favorable margin at Trump’s January 2025 inauguration to -9 (42% favorable, 51% unfavorable) by January 2026.
- Independents strongly opposed: Independents hold an unfavorable view of ICE by a -20-point margin.
- ICE funding opposition: 55% of voters — including 62% of Independents — say increased ICE funding is a “bad use of taxpayer money.”
- “Abolish ICE” meaning is contested: Plurality (42%) interpret it as fully eliminating ICE; 27% think it means reallocating functions to other agencies; 25% think it means replacing ICE with a new agency. Democrats roughly split across all three.
- Context: Survey taken after killing of Renée Good in Minneapolis — a key inflection point in ICE public opinion.
- Methodology: Web panel, n=1,225, weighted for representativeness; ±3 point margin of error.
Newsletter Angles
- The favorability flip from +13 to -9 in one year is the key data point — Trump’s immigration enforcement was popular at inauguration and has become unpopular through implementation.
- Independents at -20 is especially significant for 2026 midterm dynamics.
- The contested meaning of “Abolish ICE” is analytically interesting: even among those who want major changes, there is no consensus vision — which gives political actors room to define the debate.
- Connects directly to ICE Public Opinion Shift, Killing of Renée Good, Keith Ellison, and Operation Metro Surge — this is the quantitative anchor for the opinion shift those pages reference.
Entities Mentioned
- Killing of Renée Good — the event that prompted renewed “Abolish ICE” debate and contextualized this polling
- Keith Ellison — Minnesota AG leading suit against ICE; political actor in this ecosystem
- Operation Metro Surge — ICE operation in Minneapolis that produced the shooting
- Kristi Noem — DHS Secretary overseeing ICE during this period
Concepts Mentioned
- ICE Public Opinion Shift — this poll is the quantitative core of that concept
- Sanctuary Infrastructure — policy debate “Abolish ICE” feeds into
- Political Stress — declining approval of enforcement correlates with heightened political stress in immigrant communities
Quotes
“While voters had a favorable view of ICE by a +13-point margin right after Trump’s inauguration in 2025, the agency’s favorability rating is now underwater, with 42% of voters holding a favorable view of ICE and 51% holding an unfavorable view.”
“A majority of voters (55%) — including 62% of Independents — say it is a bad use [of taxpayer money to increase ICE funding].”
Notes
Data for Progress is a left-leaning polling organization with a track record of accurate national-level polling. The survey was conducted January 16–20, 2026, 1–5 days before publication. Conducted in English only (may undercount Hispanic/immigrant voices). Previous Data for Progress ICE polling noted in prior wiki log as having curly-quote filename issues — this is a newly fetched clean file.