Summary
Yale Budget Lab data brief on the current state of US tariffs as of July 14, 2025, including the August 1 tariffs. Provides the headline metric: the 2025 tariffs represent an 18.2 percentage point increase in the average effective tariff rate (pre-substitution), bringing the total to 20.6% — the highest since 1910.
Key Points
- Pre-substitution (before consumers/businesses shift purchasing): 18.2 ppt increase; total rate 20.6% — highest since 1910
- Post-substitution (after import shifts): 17.3 ppt increase; total rate 19.7% — highest since 1933
- The distinction matters: pre-substitution measures full consumer welfare cost; post-substitution measures what actually happens to import volumes
- Timing of shift from pre to post-substitution “highly uncertain” — some shifts happen in days, others over months
Newsletter Angles
- “Highest since 1910” and “highest since 1933” are the headline numbers — directly comparable to Smoot-Hawley era
- The pre/post-substitution distinction is analytically useful for a newsletter: it explains why tariff revenue may disappoint expectations (substitution reduces the taxable base)
Entities Mentioned
- Federal Reserve — institution affected by tariff inflation
Concepts Mentioned
- Tariff-Driven Inflation — the mechanism this data quantifies
- Trade War Currency Dynamics — tariffs at 1910/1933 levels trigger historical trade war analogies
Notes
Yale Budget Lab is a credible, non-partisan source. Short data brief — primarily useful for the headline statistics rather than analytical depth.