Summary
YouGov poll (Jan. 24–25, 2026) conducted hours after the killing of Alex Pretti — the second ICE-related shooting in Minneapolis in three weeks — finds for the first time that more Americans support (46%) than oppose (41%) abolishing ICE. 57% disapprove of ICE’s job handling; 58% say ICE tactics are too forceful; 49% approve of protests against ICE actions.
Key Points
- 46% support abolishing ICE vs. 41% oppose — first time support has exceeded opposition in YouGov polling history
- 57% somewhat/strongly disapprove of ICE’s job; 37% approve; 48% strongly disapprove vs. 23% strongly approve
- 58% say ICE tactics too forceful; up 5 points from earlier January polls (53%); 23% “about right”; 10% “not forceful enough”
- 49% approve of protests against ICE; 41% disapprove; Democrats 79% approve, Independents 49% approve, Republicans 20% approve
- Alex Pretti shooting (Jan. 25): 48% say not justified vs. 20% justified; among those who saw video, 63% say not justified
- Border Patrol (which killed Pretti) viewed less negatively than ICE: 45% favorable, 42% unfavorable; but those who saw video are 53% unfavorable
- Democrats: 76% support abolishing ICE; Independents: 47% support; Republicans: 73% oppose, but 19% support — highest ever in YouGov data
- The 19% Republican support for abolition is described as “a higher level than in any of the polls from earlier this month”
Newsletter Angles
- This poll was conducted on the day of and after the Pretti shooting — it’s a real-time measure of opinion formation during a crisis. The “support abolish” exceeding “oppose” for the first time is historically significant, but it’s a 5-point margin driven by a specific week of killings. Whether it holds is the question.
- The video effect is documented: people who saw the Pretti shooting video are much more likely to say it was unjustified. The administration’s strategy of refusing to release video (or releasing selective footage) is therefore rational from a narrative-control standpoint.
- 19% of Republicans supporting abolishing ICE is the fracture indicator. That’s not the majority, but if that number grows past 25–30%, it becomes politically significant within the GOP. The question is whether the second shooting sustained that shift.
Entities Mentioned
- Killing of Renée Good — the first killing that began the polling shift; three YouGov polls in early January measured the initial reaction
- Operation Metro Surge — the enforcement context for both killings
Concepts Mentioned
- Political Stress — public opinion formation during acute political crisis; the “video effect” on opinions
- Sanctuary Infrastructure — abolish ICE support is one expression of sanctuary infrastructure politics reaching mass scale
- Institutional Gaslighting — the difference between what people believe happened (not justified) and what the administration claims (justified self-defense) is measurable in this poll
Notes
Two separate YouGov surveys: Jan. 24 (n=3,359) and Jan. 25 (n=3,834). The second focused on Border Patrol/Pretti; both are weighted to U.S. adult population. The polling was conducted with unusual speed (hours after the shooting) because YouGov uses a standing panel, enabling rapid deployment. The Economist partnership mentioned in the article is from a separate, earlier experiment.