The Civic Node

TrendForce Q3 2025 DRAM Market Share

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Summary

TrendForce’s Q3 2025 DRAM market report shows global DRAM industry revenue reaching US$41.4 billion — a 30.9% quarter-over-quarter increase. SK Hynix leads in revenue share for the first time in recent memory, edging out Samsung, while Micron posted the strongest QoQ growth at 53.2%. The top three suppliers collectively hold ~91.5% of global DRAM revenue. Forward guidance for Q4 2025 projects conventional DRAM contract prices rising 45–55% QoQ — an extraordinary single-quarter price spike.

Key Points

  • Global DRAM industry revenue: US$41.4 billion in Q3 2025 (+30.9% QoQ).
  • SK Hynix: $13.75B revenue (+12.4% QoQ) — 33.2% market share, leading all vendors.
  • Samsung: $13.5B revenue (+30.4% QoQ) — 32.6% market share.
  • Micron: $10.65B revenue (+53.2% QoQ) — 25.7% market share (+3.7 percentage points QoQ).
  • Combined top-3 market share: ~91.5% of global DRAM revenue.
  • Taiwanese suppliers (secondary tier): Nanya +84% QoQ to $627M; Winbond +21.4% QoQ to $222M; PSMC +62.8% QoQ to $33M.
  • Q4 2025 outlook: conventional DRAM contract prices +45–50% QoQ; total contract prices (including HBM) +50–55% QoQ.
  • SK Hynix’s lead over Samsung reflects its stronger position in HBM for AI accelerators (particularly Nvidia).

Newsletter Angles

  • SK Hynix overtaking Samsung in revenue is a structural shift, not a blip — it reflects Samsung’s well-documented HBM yield problems and SK Hynix’s lock on Nvidia’s supply chain. This is what supply-chain dominance looks like when it translates to financials.
  • Micron’s 53.2% QoQ revenue surge is the most underreported number in the DRAM story: the third-place player growing faster than either market leader suggests the whole market is in a demand-driven surge, not just an HBM premium story. Micron’s gain may reflect commodity DRAM price spikes reaching the server DRAM segment.
  • The Q4 2025 forward guidance (+45–55% contract prices QoQ) is the number that would have been unthinkable 18 months earlier. Filed in November 2025, this guidance predicts the price environment that appears in the April 2026 retail data — making it a critical early warning data point in the DRAM crisis timeline.
  • The 91.5% concentration among three firms is the foundational fact for any chokepoint analysis: this is not a competitive market. Three companies control global DRAM. Any demand shock of the scale OpenAI is projecting has no absorption mechanism.

Entities Mentioned

  • SK Hynix — market share leader in Q3 2025 at 33.2%; outperforms on HBM for AI accelerators; $13.75B revenue
  • Samsung — second in Q3 2025 at 32.6%; $13.5B revenue; losing HBM ground to SK Hynix
  • Micron — third at 25.7% but fastest-growing QoQ (+53.2%); $10.65B revenue; gaining share
  • Nanya — Taiwan-based secondary supplier; $627M revenue, +84% QoQ
  • Winbond — Taiwan-based secondary supplier; $222M revenue, +21.4% QoQ
  • PSMC — Taiwan-based secondary supplier; $33M revenue, +62.8% QoQ
  • TrendForce — the market research firm authoring this analysis

Concepts Mentioned

  • AI DRAM Crisis — this source provides the market-wide revenue and price data that quantifies the crisis at the industry level
  • Supply Concentration — 91.5% revenue concentration among three firms is the structural fact underpinning chokepoint vulnerability
  • Market Dominance — SK Hynix’s overtaking of Samsung reflects HBM specialization rewarding firms with early AI supply chain positioning

Quotes

“Global DRAM industry revenue reached US$41.4 billion in Q3 2025, a 30.9% QoQ increase.” Q4 2025 outlook: “conventional DRAM contract prices [projected] +45–50% QoQ; total contract prices (including HBM) +50–55% QoQ.”

Notes

TrendForce is a credible and widely-cited Taiwanese semiconductor market research firm. This report covers Q3 2025 (July–September) and was published November 26, 2025 — making the Q4 2025 forward guidance a projection, not confirmed results. Cross-reference Q4 actuals when available. The revenue figures are in USD and represent recognized revenue, not contracted order values, making them more reliable than LOI-based demand projections. Cross-reference with OpenAI Stargate 900K DRAM Wafers — TrendForce (same research firm, different report) for the demand-side picture, and with Samsung HBM DDR5 DRAM Capacity Shift — Digitimes for Samsung’s subsequent strategic response to its Q3 market share loss.

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