Summary
CME FedWatch tool data snapshot from April 7, 2026, showing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate decisions through 2027. As of this date, the Fed funds rate stands at 3.50%–3.75% (held at the March 2026 meeting); markets assign 97.9% probability of no change at the April 29 meeting. The March 2026 dot plot revised rate cut expectations lower, reflecting persistent inflation.
Key Points
- Current rate: 3.50%–3.75% (as of March 2026 meeting; unchanged)
- April 29, 2026 meeting: 97.9% probability of hold (per CME FedWatch as of April 7, 2026)
- March 2026 dot plot: fewer cuts projected for 2026 than previously expected; median signals only limited easing
- Core PCE inflation: revised up to ~2.7% in 2026 projection (vs. prior mid-2% range) — still above 2% target
- Headline PCE also elevated due to energy prices and geopolitical tensions
- Fed message: economic growth remains resilient; labor market firm; urgency to cut reduced
- Context: the 3.50%–3.75% rate represents ~75 bps of cuts from the 4.25%–4.5% peak; the Fed delivered its projected year-end 2025 easing but then paused
Newsletter Angles
- The March 2026 dot plot revision (fewer 2026 cuts) reveals that the Fed’s September 2025 dovish pivot was not the beginning of a sustained easing cycle — it was a one-year event that delivered ~75bps of relief, then stopped
- 97.9% hold probability for April 2026 means markets see the Fed as frozen for now — higher-for-longer has returned after the 2025 cuts
- The 2.7% core PCE projection (above target) means the Fed is explicitly tolerating above-target inflation in 2026 rather than responding to it — whether by choice or necessity
Entities Mentioned
- Federal Reserve — institution whose rate policy is tracked
Concepts Mentioned
- Fed Independence — rate hold amid political context
- Tariff-Driven Inflation — persistent inflation above target is partly tariff-driven
- Stagflation — above-target inflation + limited growth = stagflation-adjacent
Notes
GrowBeansprout is a Singapore-based financial information site; content is primarily CME FedWatch data aggregation. The “impact on Singapore investors” section is irrelevant to this wiki’s focus. Useful primarily for the rate snapshot and dot plot summary as of April 7, 2026. The 2026 meeting calendar is the most operationally useful element.